{
  "title": "Leaving the Page",
  "kicker": "Notice Near By · Obituary desk",
  "route": "/names/leaving-the-page",
  "headline": "The names leaving American obituaries the fastest",
  "answer": "The women's names of the early 1920s are leaving the death page by about half since 2015. Mabel is the fastest, down −59.4%. Mildred, once ordinary on any obituary page, is down −51.2%. Dorothy loses the most notices: about 9,000 fewer modeled deaths a year.",
  "credit": "Notice Near By",
  "briefingDate": "1 October 2026",
  "briefingDateIso": "2026-10-01",
  "window": { "from": 2015, "to": 2026 },
  "finding": "Baby-name headlines call Patricia, Linda, Susan, and Karen endangered. On the obituary page they are arriving, not leaving. Patricia: 18,400 modeled deaths in 2015, 30,000 in 2026 (+63.6%). Linda: 11,900 to 27,400 (+130.7%). Those women are reaching the ages when most Americans die.",
  "menIntro": "Men leave slower (John/James/Robert/William reused). Fastest man: Elmer −45.5%.",
  "stats": [
    {
      "id": "fastest-rate",
      "label": "Fastest rate",
      "name": "Mabel",
      "figure": "−59.4%",
      "direction": "decline"
    },
    {
      "id": "common-collapse",
      "label": "Clearest common-name collapse",
      "name": "Mildred",
      "figure": "−51.2%",
      "direction": "decline"
    },
    {
      "id": "most-notices-lost",
      "label": "Most notices lost",
      "name": "Dorothy",
      "figure": "~9,000 fewer",
      "direction": "decline"
    },
    {
      "id": "largest-arrival",
      "label": "Largest arrival",
      "name": "Linda",
      "figure": "+130.7%",
      "direction": "arrival"
    }
  ],
  "fastestWomen": [
    { "rank": 1, "name": "Mabel", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 1520, "toCount": 620, "changeLabel": "−59.4%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1921" },
    { "rank": 2, "name": "Gertrude", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 2660, "toCount": 1130, "changeLabel": "−57.5%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1922" },
    { "rank": 3, "name": "Opal", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 1310, "toCount": 580, "changeLabel": "−55.7%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1922" },
    { "rank": 4, "name": "Blanche", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 1230, "toCount": 550, "changeLabel": "−55.1%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1923" },
    { "rank": 5, "name": "Genevieve", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 1550, "toCount": 740, "changeLabel": "−52.5%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1923" },
    { "rank": 6, "name": "Pearl", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 2080, "toCount": 1000, "changeLabel": "−51.8%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 7, "name": "Myrtle", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 1980, "toCount": 960, "changeLabel": "−51.3%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1922" },
    { "rank": 8, "name": "Mildred", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 9040, "toCount": 4410, "changeLabel": "−51.2%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 9, "name": "Florence", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 5540, "toCount": 2700, "changeLabel": "−51.2%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 10, "name": "Viola", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 2120, "toCount": 1060, "changeLabel": "−49.9%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 11, "name": "Agnes", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 2540, "toCount": 1270, "changeLabel": "−49.8%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 12, "name": "Violet", "sex": "Women", "fromCount": 1900, "toCount": 990, "changeLabel": "−48.2%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924", "babies2024": 6970 }
  ],
  "fastestMen": [
    { "rank": 1, "name": "Elmer", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 1880, "toCount": 1030, "changeLabel": "−45.5%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1927" },
    { "rank": 2, "name": "Herbert", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 3760, "toCount": 2660, "changeLabel": "−29.4%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1929" },
    { "rank": 3, "name": "Leo", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 2390, "toCount": 1690, "changeLabel": "−29.1%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1927", "babies2024": 7790 },
    { "rank": 4, "name": "Willard", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 1250, "toCount": 890, "changeLabel": "−28.9%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1927" },
    { "rank": 5, "name": "Chester", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 1740, "toCount": 1260, "changeLabel": "−27.6%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 6, "name": "Clarence", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 4400, "toCount": 3190, "changeLabel": "−27.5%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1927" },
    { "rank": 7, "name": "Herman", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 2010, "toCount": 1500, "changeLabel": "−25.4%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1927" },
    { "rank": 8, "name": "Wallace", "sex": "Men", "fromCount": 1350, "toCount": 1010, "changeLabel": "−25.4%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1927" }
  ],
  "mostNoticesLost": [
    { "rank": 1, "name": "Dorothy", "fromCount": 24200, "toCount": 15200, "changeLabel": "−37.1%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924", "fewerLabel": "~9,000 fewer" },
    { "rank": 2, "name": "Helen", "fromCount": 19000, "toCount": 10600, "changeLabel": "−44.2%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 3, "name": "Ruth", "fromCount": 14700, "toCount": 9090, "changeLabel": "−38.1%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924", "babies2024": 1770 },
    { "rank": 4, "name": "Mildred", "fromCount": 9040, "toCount": 4410, "changeLabel": "−51.2%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 5, "name": "Margaret", "fromCount": 19000, "toCount": 15400, "changeLabel": "−19.2%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 6, "name": "Anna", "fromCount": 8790, "toCount": 5530, "changeLabel": "−37.1%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 7, "name": "Evelyn", "fromCount": 8580, "toCount": 5540, "changeLabel": "−35.5%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" },
    { "rank": 8, "name": "Virginia", "fromCount": 12100, "toCount": 9140, "changeLabel": "−24.7%", "direction": "decline", "cohortLabel": "~1924" }
  ],
  "comingOntoThePage": [
    { "rank": 1, "name": "Michael", "fromCount": 22600, "toCount": 43300, "changeLabel": "+91.7%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1952" },
    { "rank": 2, "name": "David", "fromCount": 27400, "toCount": 44900, "changeLabel": "+63.9%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1947" },
    { "rank": 3, "name": "Linda", "fromCount": 11900, "toCount": 27400, "changeLabel": "+130.7%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1947" },
    { "rank": 4, "name": "Patricia", "fromCount": 18400, "toCount": 30000, "changeLabel": "+63.6%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1941" },
    { "rank": 5, "name": "Barbara", "fromCount": 20800, "toCount": 30900, "changeLabel": "+48.3%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1938" },
    { "rank": 6, "name": "Susan", "fromCount": 7050, "toCount": 16000, "changeLabel": "+126.3%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1948" },
    { "rank": 7, "name": "James", "fromCount": 59800, "toCount": 68400, "changeLabel": "+14.3%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1930" },
    { "rank": 8, "name": "Sandra", "fromCount": 6970, "toCount": 15200, "changeLabel": "+117.4%", "direction": "arrival", "cohortLabel": "~1942" }
  ],
  "nurseryFootnote": {
    "label": "Birth announcements, 2014–2024. Not obituaries.",
    "fromYear": 2014,
    "toYear": 2024,
    "rows": [
      { "rank": 1, "name": "Alexa", "fromCount": 4249, "toCount": 348, "changeLabel": "−91.8%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 2, "name": "Jase", "fromCount": 3751, "toCount": 438, "changeLabel": "−88.3%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 3, "name": "Annabella", "fromCount": 1280, "toCount": 174, "changeLabel": "−86.4%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 4, "name": "Alexis", "fromCount": 4246, "toCount": 604, "changeLabel": "−85.8%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 5, "name": "Katelyn", "fromCount": 1923, "toCount": 283, "changeLabel": "−85.3%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 6, "name": "Gage", "fromCount": 1945, "toCount": 297, "changeLabel": "−84.7%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 7, "name": "Aubree", "fromCount": 4279, "toCount": 773, "changeLabel": "−81.9%", "direction": "decline" },
      { "rank": 8, "name": "Brantley", "fromCount": 3353, "toCount": 640, "changeLabel": "−80.9%", "direction": "decline" }
    ]
  },
  "method": [
    "Expected deaths in a year = sum of SSA births in each earlier year × chance a person of that sex dies at the resulting age. Life table: Gompertz–Makeham, modern U.S. period table (female LE ~82, male ~77). Not a count of obituaries from any website. Same survival schedule for every cohort; people born before 1940 really died younger, so oldest names left at least this fast.",
    "Source: SSA national baby-name files 1880–2024 (public domain), weighted by sex-specific period life table.",
    "Life table: Female e0 ≈ 81.9, modal age at death 88. Male e0 ≈ 76.6, modal age at death 84.",
    "SSA undercounted people born before 1937 who never received an SSN, so very oldest names (esp. 1890–1915) left at least as fast as this model shows, possibly faster.",
    "Spelling variants are separate (Debra ≠ Deborah).",
    "Modeled deaths, rounded — not a scrape of Legacy.com or any funeral home. Not every death becomes a published obituary."
  ],
  "sparklineNote": "Modeled series, 2000–2026. The line passes through the 2015 and 2026 counts in this briefing and is linear between those years. Years before 2015 are a gentler approach to the 2015 count. They are illustrative. They are not a second ranking.",
  "downloads": {
    "pdf": "/briefing/leaving-the-page.pdf",
    "json": "/briefing/notice-nearby-handoff.json"
  }
}