The magnet

Heavy rare earths and the magnets made from them are a wartime input China already put on a license. This desk recorded the minerals baseline on September 15. This part is the war-use chapter.

What the controls do

In April 2025 China put seven rare-earth elements and their magnets under export licensing as dual-use goods. Those controls were not suspended. A later, broader package — five more elements plus extraterritorial reach into foreign-made goods with Chinese-origin content — was postponed and is now slated to take effect November 10, 2026 unless the political clock moves again. Beijing has used the license window to demand end-user data, refuse defense customers, and cut Japan to near-zero on some grades through 2026.

In June 2026 Commerce-ministry action tightened dual-use denial against ten U.S. firms, including the two names Washington has been funding to rebuild a magnet industry: MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. That is not a commodity wobble. That is a shot at the substitute.

What the platforms eat

An F-35 carries on the order of 900 pounds of rare-earth materials. A Virginia-class submarine is measured in thousands of pounds. Destroyers likewise. Samarium-cobalt magnets sit in actuators, seekers, and electronic-warfare gear. Dysprosium and terbium keep magnets working hot. Yttrium coats turbine blades. Erbium shows up in the fiber that moves data-center and undersea light. Drone motors and robot actuators run on the same magnet family China refines.

Contractors have already been described as asking to delay a 2027 ban on Chinese magnets in U.S. weapons because the substitute stack is not ready. If the plant cannot get the magnet, the missile plant is a warehouse.

Public shelf

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 remains the open ledger for who mines what and how import-dependent the United States is, metal by metal. Project Vault is a planning statement for a stockpile, not a warehouse tour. Stockpile announcements do not equal magnets in a seeker.

Bottom line

Export controls on chips were supposed to slow China’s military AI. Export controls on magnets can slow American munitions, drones, and jets. One lever is a pause. The other is a factory gate. November 10 is on the calendar.