Notice Near By · Obituary desk
Notice Near By
Leaving the Page
The names leaving American obituaries the fastest
The women's names of the early 1920s are leaving the death page by about half since 2015. Mabel is the fastest, down −59.4%. Mildred, once ordinary on any obituary page, is down −51.2%. Dorothy loses the most notices: about 9,000 fewer modeled deaths a year.
- Fastest rate
- Mabel−59.4%
- Clearest common-name collapse
- Mildred−51.2%
- Most notices lost
- Dorothy~9,000 fewer
- Largest arrival
- Linda+130.7%
Baby-name headlines call Patricia, Linda, Susan, and Karen endangered. On the obituary page they are arriving, not leaving. Patricia: 18,400 modeled deaths in 2015, 30,000 in 2026 (+63.6%). Linda: 11,900 to 27,400 (+130.7%). Those women are reaching the ages when most Americans die.
The rate list is women first. Men, on the same 2015 to 2026 window, leave more slowly. A second list counts notices lost. A third list is the names coming onto the page.
Every count below is modeled deaths: people who died, on a life table, not a scrape of a funeral site. The same survival schedule is used for every cohort.
Fastest off the obituary page
Rate, 2015 to 2026 — women
| Rank | Name | 2015 | 2026 | Change | Cohort | Modeled series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,520 | 620 | −59.4% | ~1921 | ||
| 2 | 2,660 | 1,130 | −57.5% | ~1922 | ||
| 3 | 1,310 | 580 | −55.7% | ~1922 | ||
| 4 | 1,230 | 550 | −55.1% | ~1923 | ||
| 5 | 1,550 | 740 | −52.5% | ~1923 | ||
| 6 | 2,080 | 1,000 | −51.8% | ~1924 | ||
| 7 | 1,980 | 960 | −51.3% | ~1922 | ||
| 8 | 9,040 | 4,410 | −51.2% | ~1924 | ||
| 9 | 5,540 | 2,700 | −51.2% | ~1924 | ||
| 10 | 2,120 | 1,060 | −49.9% | ~1924 | ||
| 11 | 2,540 | 1,270 | −49.8% | ~1924 | ||
| 12 | 1,900 | 990 | −48.2% | ~1924 |
Modeled series, 2000–2026. The line passes through the 2015 and 2026 counts in this briefing and is linear between those years. Years before 2015 are a gentler approach to the 2015 count. They are illustrative. They are not a second ranking.
Men, same window
Men leave slower (John/James/Robert/William reused). Fastest man: Elmer −45.5%.
| Rank | Name | 2015 | 2026 | Change | Cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elmer (Men) | 1,880 | 1,030 | −45.5% | ~1927 |
| 2 | Herbert (Men) | 3,760 | 2,660 | −29.4% | ~1929 |
| 3 | Leo (Men) | 2,390 | 1,690 | −29.1% | ~1927 · 7,790 babies in 2024 |
| 4 | Willard (Men) | 1,250 | 890 | −28.9% | ~1927 |
| 5 | Chester (Men) | 1,740 | 1,260 | −27.6% | ~1924 |
| 6 | Clarence (Men) | 4,400 | 3,190 | −27.5% | ~1927 |
| 7 | Herman (Men) | 2,010 | 1,500 | −25.4% | ~1927 |
| 8 | Wallace (Men) | 1,350 | 1,010 | −25.4% | ~1927 |
Modeled deaths
Most notices lost
Absolute drop in modeled deaths, 2015 to 2026. Dorothy loses the most: about 9,000 fewer a year.
| Rank | Name | 2015 | 2026 | Change | Cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dorothy | 24,200 | 15,200 | −37.1% | ~1924 · ~9,000 fewer |
| 2 | Helen | 19,000 | 10,600 | −44.2% | ~1924 |
| 3 | Ruth | 14,700 | 9,090 | −38.1% | ~1924 · 1,770 babies in 2024 |
| 4 | Mildred | 9,040 | 4,410 | −51.2% | ~1924 |
| 5 | Margaret | 19,000 | 15,400 | −19.2% | ~1924 |
| 6 | Anna | 8,790 | 5,530 | −37.1% | ~1924 |
| 7 | Evelyn | 8,580 | 5,540 | −35.5% | ~1924 |
| 8 | Virginia | 12,100 | 9,140 | −24.7% | ~1924 |
Modeled deaths
Coming onto the page
These names are arriving. Linda goes from 11,900 modeled deaths in 2015 to 27,400 in 2026 (+130.7%). Patricia goes from 18,400 to 30,000 (+63.6%). Those women are reaching the ages when most Americans die.
| Rank | Name | 2015 | 2026 | Change | Cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael | 22,600 | 43,300 | +91.7% | ~1952 |
| 2 | David | 27,400 | 44,900 | +63.9% | ~1947 |
| 3 | Linda | 11,900 | 27,400 | +130.7% | ~1947 |
| 4 | Patricia | 18,400 | 30,000 | +63.6% | ~1941 |
| 5 | Barbara | 20,800 | 30,900 | +48.3% | ~1938 |
| 6 | Susan | 7,050 | 16,000 | +126.3% | ~1948 |
| 7 | James | 59,800 | 68,400 | +14.3% | ~1930 |
| 8 | Sandra | 6,970 | 15,200 | +117.4% | ~1942 |
Modeled deaths
Nursery footnote
Birth announcements, 2014–2024
Not obituaries.
Birth announcements, 2014–2024. Not obituaries. These are SSA birth counts. They are not modeled deaths, and they are not a count of published obituaries.
| Rank | Name | 2014 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa | 4,249 | 348 | −91.8% |
| 2 | Jase | 3,751 | 438 | −88.3% |
| 3 | Annabella | 1,280 | 174 | −86.4% |
| 4 | Alexis | 4,246 | 604 | −85.8% |
| 5 | Katelyn | 1,923 | 283 | −85.3% |
| 6 | Gage | 1,945 | 297 | −84.7% |
| 7 | Aubree | 4,279 | 773 | −81.9% |
| 8 | Brantley | 3,353 | 640 | −80.9% |
Birth announcements — not obituaries
Method
Expected deaths in a year = sum of SSA births in each earlier year × chance a person of that sex dies at the resulting age. Life table: Gompertz–Makeham, modern U.S. period table (female LE ~82, male ~77). Not a count of obituaries from any website. Same survival schedule for every cohort; people born before 1940 really died younger, so oldest names left at least this fast.
Source: SSA national baby-name files 1880–2024 (public domain), weighted by sex-specific period life table.
Life table: Female e0 ≈ 81.9, modal age at death 88. Male e0 ≈ 76.6, modal age at death 84.
SSA undercounted people born before 1937 who never received an SSN, so very oldest names (esp. 1890–1915) left at least as fast as this model shows, possibly faster.
Spelling variants are separate (Debra ≠ Deborah).
Modeled deaths, rounded — not a scrape of Legacy.com or any funeral home. Not every death becomes a published obituary.
Briefing files
Notice Near By. Briefing date: 1 October 2026.