FEMA Daily Operations Briefing, Oct. 15: Typhoon Watch for Guam and the Northern Marianas as Tropical Depression Champi Approaches, Critical Fire Weather in Southern California, Flash Flooding in the Southern Plains, Hurricane Trudy Strengthens Off Mexico

Tropical Depression Champi: what FEMA says about Guam and the CNMI

FEMA's situation summary (Initial Assessment Brief #1, as of 4:00 p.m. ET Oct. 14) says Champi could undergo rapid intensification over the next few days and could reach Guam and CNMI at super typhoon strength. FEMA says potential threats may include widespread impacts to infrastructure, communications and essential services.

Where the storm is (FEMA, citing Advisory #4 as of 5:00 a.m. ET Oct. 15, which is 2:00 a.m. PT):

• About 895 miles east of Guam
• Moving west-northwest at 10 mph
• Maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (tropical depression strength), pressure 1002 mb on FEMA's satellite slide
• Forecast to maintain intensity over the next few days, possibly becoming a tropical storm later this evening and a typhoon Saturday

What FEMA's forecast slides show:

• Typhoon Watches are in effect for Guam, the CNMI and adjacent waters. FEMA's text says a Typhoon Watch is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan (HLT Update #4, as of 6:04 a.m. ET).
• Most likely arrival of tropical-storm-force winds: Saturday night Chamorro Standard Time (ChST) or early Sunday morning. Guam is 17 hours ahead of the U.S. Pacific coast, so Saturday night on Guam is early Saturday morning Pacific time.
• Chance of tropical-storm-force winds: Guam 82%, Rota 76%, Tinian 46%, Saipan 46%.
• Rainfall: 5 to 10 inches likely, with flash flooding, closed roads and mudslides expected.

What the National Weather Service in Guam says

The National Weather Service office in Tiyan, Guam has a Typhoon Watch in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Its local statement issued 8:56 p.m. ChST Oct. 15 (3:56 a.m. PT) says:

• Guam is now in Condition of Readiness 3, meaning damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.
• At 7 p.m. ChST, Champi (also numbered 29W) was about 890 miles east of Guam, moving west-northwest at 10 mph with 35 mph winds, and is expected to turn toward the west Friday.
• Damaging winds are likely in Guam and the Northern Marianas late Saturday night and Sunday. The strongest winds appear likely toward the southernmost islands. Islands near the center should prepare for typhoon-force winds; NWS says the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast shows sustained winds of roughly 85 knots (about 98 mph).
• NWS warns: do not focus on the exact forecast track.

A separate NWS Tiyan Typhoon Watch for the Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan coastal waters, issued 12:25 a.m. ChST Oct. 16 (7:25 a.m. PT Oct. 15), now calls the system Tropical Storm Champi. It says typhoon conditions, including winds of 64 knots or more, are possible within 48 hours, through at least Sunday night. NWS says the storm is expected to pass through the coastal waters over the weekend "as at least a category 1 typhoon, but more likely stronger," and that destructive winds will produce dangerous seas that could damage, capsize or sink vessels.

NWS safety guidance from the Typhoon Watch:

• If you live in a metal roof or container home, in a surge zone, or anywhere prone to flooding, go to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends outside evacuation zones.
• Comply with any evacuation orders. Bring to a shelter: first aid kit, medicines, a battery-powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights and batteries, bedding, identification, copies of key papers and cash. Pets are not allowed in most public shelters, so check ahead.
• Cover windows and doors with shutters or plywood, move loose objects indoors, and brace exterior doors, including garage doors. Make hardware, grocery and gas trips as early as possible.

FEMA's response for Champi

Territory posture (FEMA Region 9):

• CNMI Emergency Operations Center: Partial Activation (listed for typhoons Bavi and Saudel).
• Guam Emergency Operations Center: Normal Operations.

Federal posture (Initial Assessment Brief #1, as of 4:00 p.m. ET Oct. 14):

• FEMA Region 9 and headquarters assets, including Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs), Logistics and Disaster Emergency Communications, are en route to Guam, CNMI and Hawaii to support any emerging response requirements, mitigate potential disruptions and support recovery.
• Region 9 Watch is Monitoring; the Regional Response Coordination Center is Rostered. Regional IMAT 1 is deployed for Hawaii declarations (DR-4936-HI, DR-4909-HI, EM-3652-HI and EM-3654-HI); Regional IMAT 2 is deployed for CNMI declarations (DR-4910-MP and EM-3647-MP).
• National IMAT Red is deploying to Guam (ETA Oct. 16 ET). FEMA's national notes list N-IMAT Red for "TC Champi."
• FEMA Response Operations held a coordination call Oct. 14.
• Logistics: Incident Support Base Delta is deployed to Guam. A Support Management Team from Hawaii is deploying to Guam (ETA Oct. 16 ET). Incident Support Base Bravo is deploying to Hawaii (ETA Oct. 15 ET).

Recent typhoon declarations on record. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved Oct. 15, list 2026 typhoon declarations for both territories. For Guam: EM-3644 (Typhoon Sinlaku, April 11), DR-4921 (Super Typhoon Sinlaku, June 30), EM-3648 (Typhoon Bavi, July 3) and DR-4946 (Super Typhoon Bavi, Oct. 7). For the CNMI: EM-3645 (Typhoon Sinlaku, April 11), DR-4910 (Super Typhoon Sinlaku, April 23), EM-3647 (Typhoon Bavi, July 3) and DR-4931 (Super Typhoon Bavi, Aug. 3). There is no declaration for Champi in today's briefing.

Remnants of 28W

FEMA (Advisory #14, as of 5:00 a.m. ET) places the remnants of 28W about 690 miles north-northwest of Guam, moving west at 7 mph with 30 mph winds. It is forecast to maintain intensity through tonight, weaken Saturday, and possibly dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone.

Critical fire weather in Southern California

FEMA lists Critical Fire Weather – Southern California under hazard monitoring.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (1:07 a.m. CDT Oct. 15) has a Critical fire weather area for western Los Angeles County and southeastern Ventura County, including the Simi Valley area. SPC says east-northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph and relative humidity as low as 10% will support critical fire weather conditions.

The NWS office in Los Angeles/Oxnard has Red Flag Warnings in effect:

• Most of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, 6 a.m. Thursday to 8 p.m. PDT Saturday. In the mountains and foothills (including the Santa Monica, Santa Susana and San Gabriel mountains, the I-5 and Highway 14 corridors and the Antelope Valley foothills): winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 70 mph, humidity 8 to 20%. In the valleys and along the coast (including the Santa Clarita, San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, Ventura County coast and Malibu): gusts 45 to 55 mph, isolated gusts to 65 mph, humidity 8 to 15%.
• Cuyama Valley, San Luis Obispo County mountains and Santa Barbara County interior mountains, 3 a.m. to 6 p.m. PDT Friday: east winds 15 to 25 mph, gusts up to 40 mph, humidity 8 to 15%.

NWS says if a fire starts, conditions are favorable for extreme fire behavior that would threaten life and property. Use extreme caution with anything that can spark a wildfire, and if you live near wildland areas, be prepared to evacuate if a fire breaks out.

Red Flag Warnings and county alerts are on Notice Nearby at /ca/los-angeles, /ca/ventura, /ca/santa-barbara and /ca/san-luis-obispo, with a full desk paper at /papers/nws-santa-ana-red-flag-warnings-high-wind-watches-socal-oct-15-16. Elsewhere in California, NWS also has Red Flag Warnings for parts of the Sierra Nevada and its foothills, Kern County mountain areas and Lake County.

FEMA's regional notes also list Colorado and Utah state emergency operations for wildfires.

Heavy rain and flash flooding in the Southern Plains

FEMA lists Heavy Rain / Flash Flooding – Southern Plains. Its regional notes list Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas for severe weather.

As of about 8 a.m. PT Oct. 15, the NWS office in Norman, Okla., had two Flash Flood Warnings in north Texas:

• Southeastern Wichita County (Wichita Falls, Sheppard AFB, Pleasant Valley, Cashion), until 10:45 a.m. CDT (8:45 a.m. PT). NWS said 2 to 4 inches of rain had fallen, with up to 1 more inch possible. County page: /tx/wichita.
• Central Foard, southeastern Hardeman and northwestern Wilbarger counties (Vernon, Crowell, Chillicothe, Copper Breaks State Park and nearby), until noon CDT (10 a.m. PT). NWS said 1 to 2 inches had fallen, with up to 2 more inches possible. County pages: /tx/foard, /tx/hardeman, /tx/wilbarger.

Both warnings are on the Notice Nearby homepage map. NWS: "Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles."

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (7:52 a.m. CDT Oct. 15) has a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley, with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two possible today across parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Trudy, Tropical Storm Simon, Disturbance 1

• Hurricane Trudy (Category 1): FEMA cites Advisory #8 (5:00 a.m. ET): about 300 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, moving northwest at 9 mph with 75 mph winds; hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 115 miles. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Trudy is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center's newer Advisory 9 (9:00 a.m. CST / 1500 UTC, which is 8:00 a.m. PT) says Trudy is rapidly intensifying, with 90 mph winds, about 285 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, moving north-northwest at 6 mph. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo. NHC's Advisory 8 says Trudy is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, with rain that may cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides in Colima and Jalisco.
• Tropical Storm Simon: FEMA cites Advisory #32 (5:00 a.m. ET): about 200 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, stationary, with 60 mph winds, expected to weaken gradually and become a post-tropical remnant low by late this weekend. NHC Advisory 33 (8:00 a.m. MST / 1500 UTC) places Simon about 175 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes and 280 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, still nearly stationary with 60 mph winds and no coastal watches or warnings. NHC says interests in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor Simon.
• Disturbance 1: an area of low pressure forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico early to middle next week. Formation chance near 0% in 48 hours and 30% in 7 days (FEMA, as of 8:00 a.m. ET; NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, 5:00 a.m. PDT).
• Atlantic: FEMA says tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.

There are no U.S. coastal watches or warnings for Trudy, Simon or Disturbance 1. FEMA's notes also list Hawaii for tropical activity.

Disaster declarations, damage assessments and requests

FEMA reports no new declaration activity today.

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments under way or planned (FEMA table):

• Connecticut: severe storm and flooding (Sept. 13); Public Assistance, 1 county, started Sept. 30.
• New York: nor'easter (Sept. 26 to 27); Public Assistance, 2 counties, dates to be set.
• New Jersey: nor'easter (Sept. 26 to 27); Public Assistance, 3 counties, dates to be set.
• New Mexico: severe flooding (Sept. 28 and continuing); Public Assistance, 15 counties requested, 3 complete, started Oct. 13.
• Kansas: severe storms (Sept. 30 to Oct. 2); Public Assistance, 12 counties, dates to be set.
• Nebraska: heavy rainfall (Sept. 30 to Oct. 1); Individual Assistance, 2 counties, and Public Assistance, 11 counties, started Oct. 7.
• Navajo Nation: flooding (Sept. 15 to 18); Individual Assistance assessment Oct. 6 to Oct. 14, now complete; Public Assistance assessment started Oct. 6.

Eight declaration requests are waiting on a decision (all requests for major disaster declarations, by date requested):

• Idaho: severe storm and flooding (appeal); July 22.
• Indiana: severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes and flooding; Aug. 6.
• Nebraska: severe storm, straight-line winds and flooding (appeal); Aug. 31.
• Kansas: severe storm and straight-line winds; Sept. 15.
• Rosebud Sioux Tribe: severe storms and straight-line winds; Sept. 29.
• Washington: wildfires; Oct. 2.
• Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation: wildfires; Oct. 1.
• Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation: wildfires; Oct. 8.

FEMA readiness and workforce

• National Watch Center: Enhanced Watch (still listed for Tropical Cyclone Isaias). National Response Coordination Center: Steady State, Gold team rostered.
• FEMA Region 4 Watch is still listed for Isaias, and state emergency operations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi are listed for Isaias. Other state notes: Puerto Rico and Virginia for drought and New Jersey for power maintenance.
• FEMA reports 18,819 staff assigned to disasters. 6,246 (33%) are deployed, 6,080 (32%) are available to deploy for 30 days, and 6,493 (35%) are in the remaining category. Surge Capacity Force: 7,694 rostered, 0 deployed and about 769 estimated available.

What this means for you

• Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan: a Typhoon Watch is in effect, and NWS says damaging winds are likely late Saturday night and Sunday local time. Follow the National Weather Service in Guam and your territorial emergency management office, and finish preparations early. If you live in a metal-roof or container home or a flood-prone area, plan now for where you will shelter. If you have family on the islands, check in with them today.
• Los Angeles and Ventura counties and interior Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties: avoid anything that can spark a fire, and know your evacuation route.
• North Texas under Flash Flood Warnings: move to higher ground if water rises, and never drive through flooded roads.
• Mexico's Pacific coast: Hurricane Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane; follow Mexico's national weather service if you travel or have family there.
• County emergency contacts and live alerts are on Notice Nearby county pages and the homepage map.

Times are as issued by each agency, with Pacific times added where noted.

Source

• FEMA National Watch Center, Daily Operations Briefing, Thursday, October 15, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (cites FEMA Initial Assessment Brief #1, 4:00 p.m. ET Oct. 14; HLT Update #4, 6:04 a.m. ET Oct. 15; tropical advisories as of 5:00 a.m. ET). Official PDF attached to the FEMA GovDelivery email to publisher@noticenearby.com; public mirror also hosted by Disaster Center.
• National Weather Service Tiyan, Guam: Typhoon Watch local statement for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan (8:56 p.m. ChST Oct. 15, 2026) and Typhoon Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan coastal waters (12:25 a.m. ChST Oct. 16, 2026), via api.weather.gov.
• National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard, Red Flag Warnings issued 9:54 p.m. PDT Oct. 14, 2026; NWS Norman Flash Flood Warnings for Wichita County, Texas (7:49 a.m. CDT) and Foard, Hardeman and Wilbarger counties, Texas (9:07 a.m. CDT), Oct. 15, 2026, via api.weather.gov.
• NWS Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (1:07 a.m. CDT) and Day 1 Convective Outlook (7:52 a.m. CDT), Oct. 15, 2026.
• National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Trudy Public Advisories 8 and 9, Tropical Storm Simon Public Advisory 33, and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook (5:00 a.m. PDT), Oct. 15, 2026; NHC CurrentStorms.json.
• OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, retrieved Oct. 15, 2026.

Notes and sources

1. Image: FEMA News Photo by Andrea Booher, Agat, Guam, December 16, 2002: debris, including corrugated metal roofing, sorted for removal after Supertyphoon Pongsona (public domain; file photo, illustrative; not current conditions).
2. Source of record: FEMA National Watch Center Daily Operations Briefing, Thursday, October 15, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET, plus NWS Tiyan, NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard, NWS Norman, NWS Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and OpenFEMA products named in the Source section.
3. Author: Ryan Standley / Record of Sale, LLC / Notice Nearby.
4. Discussed on @NoticeNearYou: (pending — fill xPostUrl after live post).
5. Not legal advice. Not a newspaper. Not Legal Publication. Record of Sale, LLC (Oregon).